That doesn't sound right... by Jared Carrabis
PECOTA projects the AL East division banner will fly in Boston for the 92-win Red Sox


The annual PECOTA projections are out, as Baseball Prospectus predicts individual players' statistics, and teams' win-loss records, using a system of algorithms.

For the good news, PECOTA predicts that the Red Sox will win the American League East by a game over the New York Yankees. On the peculiar side, PECOTA has the Red Sox checking into the win column just 92 times.

Now, teams like the Kansas City Royals will read that and say "just 92 times?", but how many times have you seen a team in the AL East win 92 games, and also win the division? Well, since the 2000 Yankees won 87 games and won the East, and ultimately the World Series, no team in the AL East has won the division without winning 95 games or more.

I’ll take that division-winner to the bank, but 92 wins? I'll pass.

Apparently Josh Beckett doesn’t care much for PECOTA’s predictions much, either. Today in Fort Myers, the right-hander said that he’s not only motivated to have a big year as a result of his poor 2010 season, but because he believes this Red Sox team has the potential to win 100 games.

If the Red Sox can avoid injuries to the degree that they did last year, I don’t see any reason why they can’t crack the 100-win plateau for the first time since 1946, when Ted Williams and the American League champion Red Sox went 104-50, before losing in seven games to the St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series,

To my knowledge, PECOTA has never predicted a 100-win season for any team, so I didn't expect them to start with the 2011 Red Sox. However, I think it goes without saying that the Red Sox will be able to attain the 95 or so wins that are necessary to gain entry into postseason play.

-Jared Carrabis

How many games will the Red Sox win in 2011?

More than 100.1009998979695Less than 95.

Published on February 15, 2011

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