Summoning the spirit of Trot Nixon by Jared Carrabis
A complete Red Sox vs. Rays series preview


With their backs against the wall, a postseason spot still in the realm of possibility, the Red Sox will look to summon the spirit of Trot Nixon this weekend.

Although a sweep would be the best case scenario, taking two out of three would still keep the Red Sox' heads above water. While the Red Sox and Rays go to battle this weekend, the Yankees will have their hands full against the playoff hopeful Chicago White Sox.

After being pushed back from his slated start against Felix Hernandez for Wednesday night's nightcap, Jon Lester will take the ball on Friday night. 2-1 in his last three starts, Lester's ERA (4.96) is a bit skewed after giving up nine earned runs over two innings to the Toronto Blue Jays on August 20.

In 84 career innings against Tampa Bay, Lester is 7-3 with a 4.18 ERA.

The match-up to watch will be Lester versus Carlos Pena, who is a career .296 hitter against the left-hander with four home runs and 10 RBI. In 29 at-bats against Lester, BJ Upton is a career .179 hitter, but does own a home run.

Friday night's game, in my opinion, is the game of the series. If the Red Sox can beat the Rays' best, there's no reason why they can't sweep the whole series.

The Red Sox may have caught Rays' starter, and Cy Young contender, David Price at just the right time. In his last three outings, Price is 1-0 with an ERA of 4.24, which by his standards is not nearly at his best.

In his career against Boston, Price is 2-1 with a 3.79 ERA, but with the players that the Red Sox will have available on Friday night, none of them have more than two career hits against Price. My guy to watch on Friday is Victor Martinez, who is 2-for-8 with a home run against the left-hander.

Saturday's 7:10pm start features a match-up of Matt Garza and Clay Buchholz. If you were excited about Friday night's pitching match-up, this one should have baseball fans licking their chops.

After hitting a rough stretch, Garza has regained his form, but even when he's at his worst, Garza is always tough against the Red Sox (7-3, 3.64 ERA career vs. Boston). In his last three starts, Garza's ERA is a miniscule 1.77.

Garza's match-up to keep an eye on will be Adrian Beltre, who hits Garza at a .429 clip with a pair of homers and 6 RBI.

Buchholz, on the other hand, has not allowed an earned run in his last 23.1 innings, and owns the lowest ERA in the American League (2.26). The right-hander is 3-0 with an ERA of zero in his last three starts.

Over the years, Buchholz has been a nightmare for Tampa Bay, pitching his way to a modest 3-2 record, but a lights-out 1.93 ERA. Nobody on the Rays has more than one career RBI against Buchholz, and the only home run he has allowed to any active Ray was to Carlos Pena, who hits .167 against Buchholz overall.

Sunday night's game, which will be featured on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball, will be the wild card game of this series. A complete toss-up. John Lackey will square off against "Big Game" James Shields.

Are the Red Sox going to get the eight-inning shutout Lackey, or are they going to get the nine-hit, five-walk, eight-earned Lackey? Are the Rays going to get the seven-inning shutout, eleven-strikeout Shields, or are they going to get the four-inning, six-home run, eight-earned Shields?

Lackey is unbeaten in his last three starts at 2-0, with a respectable 3.91 ERA. Despite spending his entire career pitching in the A.L. West prior to coming to Boston, Lackey holds an impressive 11-3 record against the Rays with a 3.54 ERA.

Shields would rather not face Boston, a team that he holds a 4-9 record and 5.25 ERA when opposing. Be on the lookout for David Ortiz on Sunday, who is a .400 hitter in 36 career at-bats versus Shields with three long balls and 11 RBI.

A sweep of the Rays will mean that this season is all but over. The Red Sox can't settle for anything less than at least two wins.

However, even after this series, the Red Sox still have three more games against Tampa Bay, and six more games against the Yankees.

The Red Sox have reached the point in the season where there is zero margin for error. What would Trot Nixon do? Trot Nixon would kick some Tampa Bay Ray ass; that's what he would do.

-Jared Carrabis

Published on August 27, 2010

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