Rolling the Dice in 2010 by Jared Carrabis
A complete look at Daisuke's road to Boston and beyond


As unpredictable as the New England weather, right-handed pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka was one of a select few who reported to sunny Fort Myers, Florida before all pitchers and catchers are scheduled to arrive.

All indications are that Matsuzaka is in fantastic shape and shed some pounds this past offseason. Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein even went as far as saying, "He worked hard this winter, that's evident," which could be an understatement given Matsuzaka's dedication to being an elite pitcher.

When the Red Sox submitted a bid of $51,111,111 to the Seibu Lions of Japan in order to obtain negotiating rights with Matsuzaka for 30 days, their bid alone spoke volumes of their expectations of the pitcher.

When Epstein and Co. put a 6-year offer on the table worth $52 million in December of 2006, the expectations grew even higher for the organization, but most importantly, for the loyal fans of the Boston Red Sox.

Upon his arrival, Matsuzaka-Mania swept the hub. Fans back home in Japan awaited his starts and either stayed awake, or woke themselves up during hours they normally never would have seen had it not been for Daisuke pitching in a Red Sox uniform here in the United States.



His contract is of the most intricate that, personally, I have ever seen. Literally, the $2 million signing bonus is the only incentive that wouldn't be uncommon to find in the contract of a player who has yet to throw a major league pitch.

From a personal translator, to a personal masseuse, and his own physical therapist, Daisuke's deal ensured that he had it made. His contract stated that he would be guaranteed his number 18 jersey, eight first-class round-trip airline tickets per year between to fly him from Boston to Japan and back again, spring training housing allowance of up to $25,000, Boston housing allowance of up to $75,000, one-time moving allowance of up to $35,000, use of Lincoln Town Car or similar car, Red Sox player ticket package, including two field box seats and a team employee to assist Japanese media according to Cots Baseball Contracts (catches breath). Phew.

If you dig deep into the contractual language of his 6-year deal with Boston, you will find that the Red Sox expected a lot from Matsuzaka from the get-go, and in return, he expected a lot from himself.

From the start, Daisuke was rewarded with a full no-trade clause and a guarantee that he could not be sent to the minor leagues; unless, of course, he was on a rehab assignment.

The award bonuses in Matsuzaka's contract brought on more dollar signs if the Japanese right-hander placed anywhere in the top five for the American League MVP award, anywhere in the top three for the American League Cy Young award, for making the American League All Star team, for starting the All Star Game, for being named the ALCS or World Series MVP and for winning the American League Rookie of the Year Award.

Needless to say, expectations were high.

With two nations, Red Sox Nation and the Nation of Japan, watching his every move, Matsuzaka pitched his way to a 15-win season in 2007 with a respectable 4.40 ERA in 204.1 IP. However, 2008 would be the year that Matsuzaka would prove his ultimate worth to the club.

In the shadow of Josh Beckett and Jon Lester Matsuzaka pitched his way to a brilliant 18-3 season, which proved to be his last full season, after suffering a very, very disappointing 2009 campaign.

Some criticized Daisuke for having a tainted 18-win season, due to the fact that in 29 starts, the right-hander only pitcher seven innings or more in only eight outings. However, for what they were worth, his 167.2 innings in 2008 were brilliant. He may not have seemed dominant or overpowering by the way he worked in and out of jams on a nightly basis, but if you look at the numbers, it's indisputable.

In 2008, Matsuzaka averaged 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings, while holding opposing batters to a .211 batting average and leading the American League in hits per nine innings with a 6.9 mark. What makes these numbers all the more impressive is that he did it all without the legendary "Gyroball."

On the road, he was perfect at 9-0. Batters came to the plate in eighteen separate occasions with the bases loaded against Matsuzaka in '08, and of all eighteen, neither of them were successful in getting a hit off of the Japanese phenom. Daisuke faced 216 batters in a tie-game situation in 2008 and held batters to a .206 mark. He pitched well under pressure and although he would often bend, it was rare to see him break.

2009 was a different story. The stress from the innings that Matsuzaka pitched in the World Baseball Classic sacrificed any chance of the right-hander improving on, or even coming close to duplicating his success in 2008.

Just a year before, Daisuke had sliced the number of home runs allowed (25/12) and the number of earned runs allowed in half (100/54). In 2009, Daisuke yielded 10 HR in 59.1 innings after only allowing 12 in 167.2 just a year prior. His ERA in 2009 skyrocketed to 5.76 after turning in a very impressive 2.90 ERA in 2008. Injuries limited to just 12 starts and a 4-6 seasons. For $8 million, both the Red Sox organization and the fans felt ripped off.

In 2010, Daisuke will be a man on a mission.

He is a man who has always prided himself on being the best. Although he surrounds himself with far better talent here in the major leagues compared to back home in Japan, he still showed by his fourth place finish in the Cy Young voting in 2008 that he can hang with the big boys.

2010 will be the ultimate test to see if Daisuke will live up to the money in which the Red Sox dished out to bring him here. In 2007, we saw mediocrity. In 2008, we saw flashes of greatness. In 2009, we saw failure.

Red Sox Senior Advisor to Baseball Operations, Bill James, predicts that Matsuzaka will pitch his way to a 12-10 record and an ERA of 4.02 in 195 innings to go along with 184 strikeouts. I'm no Bill James, but I have a little bit more of a brighter outlook for Daisuke in 2010. Although I don't see him jumping right back up into the 18-win range just yet, I don't think it's unfair to predict that Daisuke will go 15-9 with a 3.89 ERA, with around 170 strikeouts in 180+ innings.

Let's not forget that with the addition of John Lackey, Matsuzaka shifts down to the number four slot in the rotation. With less expectations as the number-four starter, I see great things from an already wildly motivated pitcher who is still young, a proven major league talent and on the rebound.

-Jared Carrabis

To order Jared's debut book, One Fan's Story: If This Hat Could Talk, click HERE!

Jared also hosts the TruFan Red Sox Webcast live from Boston, MA every Tuesday and Thursday from 2-3pm EST on TruFan.com/Webcast





Published on February 13, 2010

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