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Let's address Boston's winter performance, shall we? by Mike Ghika
Sox are positioned well for 2010 and beyond

So yes, I've been out of commission for quite some time here on the blog, but what better time to regain your composure with the holidays a thing of the past and the pitchers and catchers' report date only about a month away? Here is a tightly-packed collection of thoughts on the hot-button topics of the offseason thus far, with minimal criticism from myself at most, because the Sox' assembling of the 2010 team has been done with a pristine plan in mind.

On the loss of Jason Bay: It seems as if the Sox had been going through the motions on a Bay deal since the All-Star break, when talks inconsequently broke down because of management's fears over the left fielder's health and defense moving forward. Personally, I think even more so it came down to the simple question: Is Bay the right guy to anchor this lineup for years to come? At $16 million per year, he was never going to hit .330, and it is hard to argue in his favor that he could consistently match his career highs of last year (36 HR, 119 RBI) into his mid-thirties. And when you look ahead to next year's free agent class (Joe Mauer, Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Jayson Werth), Bay will be nothing more than an afterthought at that point.

But the fact is the biggest criticism isn't so much that the Sox offense is sub-par, it is more along the lines that it simply doesn't feature a cornerstone guy. Despite last year's knocks on the Sox offensively, they still third in the AL in runs and second in OBP, slugging, and homers. Let's face it, they may not reach base as much as they did last year, which will be a direct effect from the loss of Bay, but don't sell the team short and expect a power outage at the plate in 2010. For large portions of the season, the Sox had gaping holes at catcher, shortstop, and DH offensively. This season, with Victor Martinez, Marco Scutaro, and hopefully a revitalized David Ortiz, the Sox will not be faced with automatic outs taking up a third of the lineup.

On the signing of John Lackey: With or without Bay, the Sox were not going to run out the kind of prolific offense in 2010 like they had in 2003 and 2004 with a vintage Ortiz and Manny Ramirez anchoring the lineup. This is no question a transitional period for the team on the offensive side of things (C'mon, did the majority of fans really expect the offense not to miss a beat and show no struggles after the Manny trade and Ortiz injury in 2008?), but it's hard to buy into the "bridge year" talks when you've got a 1-2-3 punch in Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and John Lackey at the forefront of a team that going into the season is an obvious choice to win the Wild Card.

Not only does Lackey provide virtuous intensity and a bulldog veteran attitude that should fit perfectly within the Boston clubhouse, but his signing also creates a double standard moving forward with Beckett, who is a free agent after the season. The Lackey signing on one side provides insurance should Beckett leave, but it also provides the framework for a potential deal as well given the career stats of both Texas right-handers (Lackey: 31 years old, 3.81 ERA, 102 wins; Beckett: 30 years old, 3.79 ERA, 106 wins). But just as well, Beckett has a 4.05 ERA over four seasons since joining Boston and the American League, while Lackey has a 3.50 ERA over the same period of time.

With perhaps the Cardinals' signing of Matt Holliday being the exception, there's no free agent signing that will pay off more than Lackey will for the Sox. There will be nothing of sorts like last year when guys like John Smoltz, Brad Penny, Junichi Tazawa, and Paul Byrd were in the fold (low-risk, high-reward guys can prove valuable, but they should never be counted on to fill out two starting spots in an AL East rotation). With the addition of Lackey, a healthy understanding of the American game from Daisuke Matsuzaka (finally), a confident Clay Buchholz at the No. 5, and a drastically improved defense, the pieces are in place for a large leap in performance on the mound, as Theo Epstein will have himself his best starting staff since coming aboard seven years ago.

On the signing of centerfielder Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury's move to left: I understand the general backlash from Red Sox Nation at this move. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Don't mess with the young kid's development. Yadee yada yada.

Of course, Ellsbury is arguably the fastest player in baseball and is the best athlete on the team. But in 2008, how come he spent 58 games in left and 36 games in right when Coco Crisp was on the roster? They weren't increasing his versatility. It was because he was an inferior defender to a top-rate centerfielder. Sure, Ellsbury rarely makes errors, but fielding percentage is about as outdated as batting average is these days, as these defensive metrics you read into but never fully understand are certainly real measures of performance. Ellsbury had just two errors in 363 chances last year, but Ultimate Zone Ratings (UZR) stats will show that there were still a number of balls put in play that should have gone for outs, but did not because of who was playing the position.

It is a simple matter of personnel. If you're running a small business, are you going to let a qualified female receptionist drive a forklift and put a strong 25-year-old male behind a desk to answer the phone? Cameron is best suited to play centerfield for this team. It is not a fairy tale; statistics prove that he will catch more balls in center than Ellsbury can, so it is impossible for me to buy any argument otherwise. Ellsbury's weak arm will be better utilized in a short left field and he can basically play a deep shortstop to adhere to his biggest strength as an outfielder – coming in on balls put in play. Most importantly, it will obviously allow him to rest his legs, and thereby focus more on hitting the ball to all fields and improve upon the fact that he is a stolen base machine.

Offensively, Cameron isn't going to hit for average, but he's good for 25, maybe 30, homers with the help of Fenway, and his career OBP is .090 points higher than his career average. And don't forget, Jeremy Hermida will see plenty of at-bats against right-handers as well, which will move Cameron to the bench and Ellsbury to center at times. Centerfield is still the speedster's career position for the long haul, but this move makes the most sense organizationally right now.

On the signing of Adrian Beltre: Statistics, statistics, statistics! Measure in ballpark adjustments, a clean bill of health, give this guy 500 at-bats, and Beltre is going to make some money come this time next offseason. He comes at an affordable $9 million, provides lineup depth should Ortiz struggle again or if and when JD Drew inevitably gets hurt, and has proven year in and year out that he is possibly the best defensive third baseman EVER.

This could very well be the type of under-the-radar acquisition that turns into a 30 HR, 100 RBI All-Star season. Hopefully The Mike Lowell Statue will have a chance to prove it is healthy in spring training, and hopefully Epstein will find a trade partner so the Sox can salvage $2-3 million on a contract for a guy they have deemed has virtually no value being on the roster. Epstein dealt Nomar and Manny and let Pedro and Damon go, so I was surprised to see him cave to public pressure and sign Lowell even despite his World Series MVP performance in '07. It is a move that has not worked out, and management is trying to rid themselves of slow, old guys (Lowell, Varitek, Ortiz) in favor of younger athletic players.

On the signing of Marco Scutaro: While Cameron and Beltre play into the Sox' transition of steering away from overall OBP in favor of defensive efficiency, Scutaro will still provide the team with both. While he may not be a part of the elite class, Scutaro measures up as a premier defensive shortstop, and if he can come anywhere close to his .379 OBP in 2009 out of the No. 9 spot, his performance could prove to be invaluable. Regardless of his performance after one career year (.282-12-60), he is a significant upgrade over the Nick Green-Alex Gonzalez mess of a situation last year. He also comes at a fair price and can be easily transitioned to another position (or even a platoon player) in coming years.

On the acquisition of Jeremy Hermida: Sometimes, you just never know. Hermida was the No. 4 overall prospect in baseball at one point in his development, but he never panned out as an All-Star caliber player in Miami. He has played in 120+ games the last three seasons, but will surely see significantly less at-bats than the 511 ABs he has averaged per year over the last three seasons.

However, a year from now, Drew (and Cameron) will be just a year away from free agency. Drew and Ortiz have notable injury histories at this point, and Hermida could very well find himself 350 at-bats in the outfield or at DH when inevitably guys go down. The Sox didn't get this guy expecting a hidden gem to suddenly figure it out in the big leagues, but don't count out the fact that with the right hitter's ballpark and the right tutelage from veterans that this kid could one day meet expectations.

On the improved overall defense of the club: I still feel like there is too much criticism about the offense and not enough focus on the incredible strengths this team will have on the mound and defensively behind its pitchers. You have replaced Lowell, Green, and Bay (all below-average defenders) with Beltre, Scutaro, and Cameron (all above-average, Gold Glove-caliber defenders), and you've actually made two projected upgrades in the outfield with Cameron over Ellsbury and Ellsbury over Bay, so the team has essentially addressed those four inefficient defensive spots and made them each a strength, and that goes without mentioning Gold Glovers Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis and the steadiness of Drew in right.

Run prevention is not something of a myth. Obviously it is different in the NBA, but are you likely to be successful trying to outscore your opponents 120-118 night in and night out? Or are you more likely to win by holding teams under 90 points per game like the Celtics' teams of recent years have done?

The idea that this team is going to have to win a ton of 3-2 games is absurd. The Yankees offensively are of course in their own class in the AL, but otherwise, who else can sport the offense the Sox does? The Angels, the team most similar to the Sox offensively last season, have lost their sparkplug in Chone Figgins, who led the league in walks and was second in runs only to Pedroia in 2009. The Angels (883) scored just nine more runs than the Sox (872) last year, and no other team in MLB besides the Yanks and Halos came within 52 runs of what Boston scored.

On the immediate and long-term future of the Sox: With A+ pitching and A+ defense intact, you're telling me there is no recipe for success with a team that also has a B+ offense? Don't buy the downward progression of a championship in 2007, an ALCS loss in 2008, and a wild card loss in 2009. Chalk up another playoff appearance for the Sox in October 2010, and let the recipe for success speak for itself.

After that, somewhere in the neighborhood of $55 million comes off the books as the contracts of Beckett, Ortiz, Lowell, Martinez, Jason Varitek, and Julio Lugo all are up. With that money (and with the money the Sox won't be stuck paying Bay), Epstein will be sure to go out and get that cornerstone bat prior to 2011 by signing a guy like Mauer or trading for and extending Adrian Gonzalez, just as the Casey Kellys and Ryan Westmorelands are set to break onto the scene, much like how Ellsbury, Pedroia, Papelbon and Lester were so instrumental in 2007. Let the short-term and long-term scenarios play out, folks. This organization has a plan in place, and at this point it would make no sense to steer from it.

-Mike Ghika