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New-look Sox to bring new result in '10? by Jared Carrabis
A look at the 2010 Red Sox compared to the '09 squad

When fans tune in to Opening Day on April 4, 2010, what they will see is a team that has a vast difference from the team that was swept away by the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

Almost awkwardly, the captain that the city of Boston has held dear to their hearts over the years will be commanding the ship from the bench come Opening Day. Though Jason Varitek remains with the team, he will no longer be relied on nearly as heavily as he was prior to the arrival of perennial All Star, Victor Martinez.

Despite the drastic change, the Red Sox front office and the fans of Boston should not be surprised, as this "changing of the guard" of sorts practically took place almost instantly after Martinez's trade to Boston. Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein didn't publicly announce that Martinez would be taking over the bulk of the Red Sox's catching duties until earlier this winter, but it essentially already happened and was already assumed by players and fans alike.

When comparing the Opening Day '09 catching situation to what it will be in 2010, I think it's fair to call this an upgrade.

Remaining in the infield, the recent free agent signing of Adrian Beltre did a world of good for this team's makeup. Although Kevin Youkilis made some comments that he doesn't mind where his name is inserted in the lineup defensively, it's safe to say that he prefers the first base position. The addition of Beltre allows Youkilis to remain at the position in which he committed zero errors in 2007 en route to his first of potentially many Gold Glove awards.

Staying on the subject of Beltre, although fans have grown a strong, and mutual, love for Mike Lowell, the Red Sox have made it very clear that they no longer see the veteran third baseman as a player who can man the hot corner productively for an entire season.

Their attempt to move Lowell in case of a Mark Teixeira signing during the 2008 offseason was the first of what would be many tries to move forward without Lowell, as the Red Sox had a deal in place that was "85% done" according to MLB.com's Ian Browne with the Texas Rangers. When that deal fell through following complications with Lowell's wrist that would eventually lead to surgery, rumors sprouted of the Red Sox wanting to move Lowell to the New York Mets for Luis Castillo after the surgery was deemed a success.

Although the deal to send Lowell to the Mets seems highly unlikely, the Beltre signing may not indicate the end of the Lowell era in Boston just yet, but it absolutely means that he will no longer be the starting third baseman after Boston committed $10 million to Beltre for the upcoming season. Look for the Red Sox to look to move Lowell yet again if he has a strong showing in spring training.

Taking heavily into consideration the ballpark that Beltre played in over the past five seasons, it's only logic that a dead pull-hitter such as he that a great deal of fly outs to left field at Safeco Field would be doubles, maybe even home runs, at Fenway Park. Defensively, you can't say enough about Beltre at the hot corner.

Overall, considering Lowell's inability to give the Red Sox a full season of production, I view Beltre at full health as an upgrade over what most think that Lowell will be able to provide the Red Sox in 2010.

The two-year, $12.5 million deal signed by free agent Marco Scutaro put a stop to the revolving door at shortstop, at least for now, here in Boston. The sure-handed infielder is coming off a career year that can't be expected to be duplicated by the 34-year-old. Born just nine days after Carlton Fisk sent his hands waving into the sky to push a game-winning home run off the left field foul pole in Game 6 of the 1975 World Series, Scutaro won't be asked to do much else other than what he is capable of doing, which is getting on base, scoring runs and playing solid defense.

In comparison to 09's shortstop Alex Gonzalez, you can't get much better than that. However, he is damn near close, as Scutaro's .984 fielding percentage at shortstop in 2009 was identical to the .984 fielding percentage put up by Gonzalez in 2009 between both his time with the Cincinnati Reds and Boston.

Offensively, the nod clearly goes to Scutaro, which makes this addition to the middle infield an upgrade overall to the team in 2010 and '11.

I almost skipped Dustin Pedroia because what more can be said about this guy that hasn't been said, but since I love 'em, I'll give him his praise. Although his 2009 campaign was considered to be a "drop off" from his 2008 MVP season, Pedroia by no means had a "bad season." Red Sox fans can't come to expect Pedroia to put up MVP-type seasons annually, but what we have all come to learn since his arrival to the big leagues in 2006 is never to doubt this guy.

He's considered to be one of the best second basemen in the game and rightfully so. Expect Scutaro and Pedroia to form one of the best double play combinations in the game in 2010.

As we complete our review of the Red Sox's 2010 infield, it goes without saying that we just may be treated to the best defensive infield not only in baseball, but in team history.

Looking out into the outfield, you're going to see some changes. Jason Bay will no longer be the man patrolling the grass in front of the big green wall and Jacoby Ellsbury won't be standing in a sea of green out in center field. Earlier this week, Red Sox manager Terry Francona informed Ellsbury that he would be filling the void in left field left by Bay, and also contacted free agent addition Mike Cameron that he would be the team's new center fielder.

The reaction to the swap by fans so far has been mixed in the SoxSpace comment section and at first even I opposed the flip-flop. However, SoxSpace contributor Mike Ghika gave me a two-hour speech on defensive metrics and how even at age 37, Cameron is better suited for the center field position defensively. I support the move, as it will allow the Red Sox outfield to rival that of the Tampa Bay Ray's combination of BJ Upton and Carl Crawford. Essentially, the chances of a ball falling in the outfield grass if you hit the ball anywhere but right field has greatly diminished in comparison to 2009.

However, offensively, the Red Sox take a big hit with the subtraction of Bay's bat. They will surely miss Bay's 30+HR and 100+RBI, but what most seem to forget is that Youkilis is no longer the "Greek God of Walks." Instead, over the past two seasons, he has become the "Greek God of Driving in Runs." Over the course of the past two seasons, Youkilis has averaged 28 HR and 105 RBI.

On a side note, and no knock against Bay because I think he's a phenomenal player, but he was what most like to call a "mistake hitter." I don't have the exact number on hand, but I can assure you that at least 70% of his home runs last season were off of fastballs. He wasn't the type of hitter that was going to beat you on a good pitch, but if you make a mistake to Bay, it was going somewhere.

Regardless, Cameron by no means is an upgrade over Bay. In retrospect, in the famous words of Hall of Fame shortstop Ozzie Smith (and I'm paraphrasing here), taking away a run defensively is just as important as driving in a run offensively, and that's what we have here with the combination of Ellsbury in left and Cameron in center.

2010 will be the fourth year of JD Drew's 5-year, $70 million contract. As I mentioned before, the subtraction of Bay will hurt the Red Sox offensively, but it won't be all that bad if Drew can live up to the player that Epstein believed he was signing back in the offseason entering 2007. As fans, we've seen spurts of Drew's talent flourish, but so far we have yet to see a full season of it.

Could Drew be the bat in the Red Sox lineup to compliment Youkilis? That remains to be seen. Equipped with a lifetime OBP of .392, Drew's issue was never about getting on base, but rather it was about driving the men in who were already on base in front of him, and staying healthy enough to do so. You'd never know it, but Drew actually ranks 12th among all active players in OPS with a mark of .896.

The "spurts" of talent that I referred to above concerning Drew can be seen when you look at the month of June in 2008 which led to his Player of the Month honors. In that month of June, Drew batted .337 with 12 HR and 27 RBI over 26 games. Although completely unrealistic, but it's fun to fool around with, had Drew put up the numbers that he put up in that month of June in '08 in each month of the season, he would have hit roughly 72 HR and driven in 162 runs.

Like I said, that would never happen, but it kills fans because they know that a $14 million player is in there somewhere, we just haven't seen it on a consistent basis. With two years left in his contract, we're running out of time to see it at all.

Alongside Drew, David Ortiz will be another X-factor to Boston’s offense. Taking a quick glace at his 2009 numbers, Ortiz's 28 HR and 99 RBI are a great season for anyone else, but for Ortiz, it's unfairly deemed a disappointment. We're talking about a player who didn't hit his second homer of the season until the first of June. From that point forward, no one in the American League had more home runs than Ortiz.

Ortiz averaged about 7 HR per month over the last four months of the season, with just one homer over the first two months in '09. Had Ortiz maintained his 7 HR per month average over the course of the whole season, he would have belted around 42 HR.

He also drove in just as many runs (18) in the month of June that he did in the first two months of the season combined. In the final four months of the season, Big Papi averaged just over 20 RBI per month. Had he done that over a full season, he would have driven in just over 121 RBI, which would have been just one RBI short of Teixeira's AL-leading 122 RBI. Consistency will be key for the lefty slugger in 2010, as the Sox look for him to help anchor an offense with scattered question marks.

With all nine defensive positions and the DH covered, let's talk some pitching. This starting rotation has fans licking their chops and opposing batters shaking in their boots. If I look at the probable pitchers for an upcoming series and I see "Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and John Lackey," I'm pulling a Manny Ramirez and faking a knee injury for a few days.

Between the new "Big Three" in Boston, the trio of aces compile a total of 250 wins, 3,018 strikeouts and a collective ERA of 3.75. As a whole, those are the numbers of one Hall of Fame pitcher, but when you pull the three apart, they account for what will be the most feared three-man rotation in baseball come October.

Let's not forget that former 18-game winner Daisuke Matsuzaka rounds out the bottom half of the rotation in the fourth slot and reportedly is in "phenomenal shape." Depth will be a factor once against for the Sox, as Clay Buchholz will likely begin the year as the rotation's fifth starter, and you can't forget old reliable, Tim Wakefield will be looking to build on his first All Star season in 2010.

It goes without saying that having Lackey and Buchholz as a part of this rotation is a tremendous upgrade over having Brad Penny and John Smoltz.

The Red Sox bullpen still has some holes to fill with the subtractions of Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito signing free agent contracts with the Atlanta Braves, but the emergence of Daniel Bard in 2009 has a lot of Sox fans feeling optimistic. The Red Sox will more than likely try to insert Bard into the setup role for consistent closer, Jonathan Papelbon.

By fans' standards, Papelbon's '09 campaign was shaky at best, as his WHIP (stat that measures the number of walks and hits allowed by a pitcher divided by their number of innings pitched) crept up over 1.00 for the first time in his big league career as a closer (1.15). In other words, Papelbon previously allowed an average of less than one base runner per inning in his career as closer prior to 2009.

Despite those men getting on base against Pap, he didn't allow many to actually score. His 1.85 ERA was actually lower than it was in 2008 when he compiled an ERA of 2.34. His 38 saves were the second highest that he's racked up and his 3 blown saves tied a career low.

If the saying that "pitching and defense wins championships" is true, and the Red Sox have the one of the best defensive teams in the game to go along with one of the best rotations in baseball, then...well, you get the picture.

-Jared Carrabis

Bonus material:
Jeff Esposito of JeffEsposito.com was kind enough to record a video book review of my book. Check it out!

To order Jared's debut book, One Fan's Story: If This Hat Could Talk, click HERE!