Billy Bluff by Jared Carrabis
Wagner claims he might consider accepting Boston's potential arbitration offer


Baseball is a business. You know it, I know it, and so does Billy Wagner, apparently.

Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald reported that the Wagner era in Boston may not be over just yet. I, on the other hand, call BS on that report.

On Tuesday, speaking on behalf of Wagner, the left-handed relievers agent, Bean Stringfellow, said that Wagner hasn't ruled out accepting an arbitration offer from the Boston Red Sox, should they make one.

"Will Billy reject (arbitration)?" Wagner’s agent, Bean Stringfellow, said yesterday. "I just visited with Billy and his family the other day and I can tell you this much: Billy thoroughly enjoyed his time in Boston. It was one of the best experiences he has ever had in baseball. So, does he rule out accepting arbitration? No, he doesn’t."

Do I believe that he enjoyed his time here in Boston? Absolutely. What player wouldn't? (cough, Manny, cough) But, there's no chance that Wagner actually wants to accept an arbitration offer from the Boston Red Sox and I'll tell you why.

At the age of 38, it is safe to say that the left-handed Wagner's best days are behind him, which means that he has very precious little time remaining in his "tank." With the sand on the top of his baseball career hour glass running thin, it would be in his best interest to play for a team where he would be guaranteed the role of closer.

Wagner is 15 saves away from the prestigious 400 saves mark and Jonathan Papelbon under contract, there isn't much of a chance of the lefty racking up 15 saves here in Boston.

Wagner has been paid $10.5 million annually since 2006. If the lefty accepted an arbitration offer from the Red Sox, he would almost certainly be due a raise from the $10.5 million he was paid in 2009, only to be a setup man and nothing more.

Being that Wagner is a Type A free agent, if the Red Sox offer him salary arbitration and the reliever signs elsewhere, Boston will receive two compensation draft picks from the team that brings Wagner on board.

In 17 games in 2009 (15 with Boston), Wagner struck out 26 batters in 15.2 innings, while holding opponents to a .154 batting average. While these numbers are very impressive, it was a small sampling from an aging pitcher coming off of Tommy John surgery.

Wagner just doesn't want the Red Sox to offer him arbitration, because he knows that Boston won't want to pay him more than $10.5 million to be a setup man, but on the other hand, they want those two draft picks. Wagner doesn't want the Red Sox to make the arbitration offer because it could very well scare teams away who are interested in signing him, due to the fact that they'd have to cough up their draft picks in order to sign him as a free agent.

It's a game of cat and mouse.

So, in conclusion, Billy Wagner did enjoy his time here in Boston, but the bottom line is that reaching the 400 saves mark is very important to him. He wouldn't want to return to a team that he cannot be the closer, and the Red Sox will hurt his appeal on the free agent market by offering him arbitration.

When a player accepts arbitration, they can negotiate any kind of deal that they want. However, it's not guaranteed money. If the scenario plays out where Wagner accepts an arbitration offer from the Red Sox and signs a one-year deal, the Red Sox have the option of cutting Wagner during Spring Training and never paying him a dime, and Wagner knows that.

Bottom line, business is business and you ain't foolin' the Sox, Billy. Regardless, good luck in your pursuit of 400 saves and hopefully those two draft picks that we get turn into young players who can help the Red Sox win someday.

These compensation picks are of a very high value to the Red Sox, and I'll explain. When Orlando Cabrera signed with the Angels after the 2004 World Series, the Angels handed over two draft picks that eventually turned into Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie.

One of the two picks that the Yankees had to hand over to the Red Sox after signing Johnny Damon? Daniel Bard. When Derek Lowe signed with the Dodgers, the Red Sox used their draft picks to select Michael Bowden and Craig Hansen, who was a part of the pivotal trade that brought Jason Bay to Boston. The Mets' signing of Pedro Martinez resulted in the selection of Clay Buchholz by the Red Sox.

So now you understand why these two picks are very important to the Red Sox, and to you, if you plan on rooting for a team worth watching in the future.

-Jared Carrabis

To order Jared's debut book, One Fan's Story: If This Hat Could Talk, click HERE!





Published on November 11, 2009

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