Wake me up in October by Jared Carrabis
A look ahead at the postseason for Boston


Wake me up when the playoffs start.

With fourteen games remaining in the 2009 season, at this point, all Red Sox fans have to do from this point forward is sit back and see if our team can catch the Yankees in the division just for laughs. Boston currently holds an eight-game lead over the second place Texas Rangers, as their magic number to clinch a playoff spot dwindled down to seven after a 9-3 stomping of the Baltimore Orioles to complete a three-game sweep.

On September 9, the Red Sox trailed the American League East by a margin of nine games. As it stands today, the Yankees' lead has slimmed down to just five games.

Do I think the Red Sox will win the division? Not likely. It's certainly possible, but as much as fans would like to see the Red Sox overtake the Yankees' once seemingly insurmountable division lead, it is not on the agenda for Terry Francona's squad.

We're talking about a team who in 2007 would have conceded their AL East crown in order to rest the teams' starters in the final week of the regular season once a playoff berth had been clinched.

At this point, the division means nothing but bragging rights. If the Sox were to pull of a miraculous comeback in the AL East, they would more than likely square off against the top team hailing from the AL Central. After defeating the second place Minnesota Twins on Sunday, the Detroit Tigers expanded their lead in the Central to three games. If the Tigers were to meet Boston in October, the Red Sox have defeated Detroit in six of their seven meetings in 2009.

But, here's what is the most likely scenario that will unfold. The Red Sox will make their run in the final weeks of the season, hopefully closing the gap in the East to 2-3 games, but the Yankees will be too strong to yield the division title. Despite the two team's entrance to the postseason, I suspect that the Yankees, Red Sox and St. Louis Cardinals will be the most feared clubs in October.

If things pan out the way that they more than likely will with Boston taking the Wild Card, the Angels will once again draw their most hated postseason foe, the Boston Red Sox, in the American League Division Series. If these two teams meet in the division series, it will be the fourth time that these two were matched up against each other in the past six postseasons.

You'd think that over time, considering that the competition level is so high in October, that the Red Sox and Angels would build up quite the rivalry, but since 2004, the Angels have defeated the Red Sox just once, as Boston has taken the other nine games, winning two World Series titles along the way.

Although the Angels took the season series from Boston, five games to four, Mike Scioscia and the Halos know the drill.

The ace of the Angels' staff, John Lackey, was sent to the mound just once in 2009 against Boston and was sent packing with a loss. In three career postseason starts against Boston since 2007, Lackey has never defeated the Red Sox in October.

Right-hander Jered Weaver is credited with the only postseason victory against Boston for the Angels in the past three series combined, and with 15 wins thus far in 2009, he's your best bet in either the two or the three-slot. Unless Scioscia wants to mix up his rotation to go right-left-right.

Weaver, of course, was on the mound in Game 3 of the 2007 ALDS when Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz went back-to-back against the, then, 24-year-old, resulting in the final game of a three-game sweep.

The lefty, Joe Saunders, will find his way into the postseason rotation in either two or three-slot, but his left-handed pitching may bump him up to the game two starter. His postseason ERA against Boston currently sits at 7.71, as the Red Sox will look to keep that number on the rise, if in fact these two teams meet in the first round of postseason play.

When Francona fields the best lineup at his disposal, we're looking at an offense that can put up double-digit runs on any given night. Daisuke Matsuzaka's absence for most of the stretch-run will likely mean that his third spot on the postseason rotation will be handed--I actually shouldn't say "handed" because it was definitely earned--to Clay Buchholz.

The combination of Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Buchholz, with Matsuzaka as the secret weapon waiting to be called upon, this rotation is by far the deepest and matches up better than any rotation that October has to offer.

The Yankees have some decisions to make, as CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett will be their two front-line starters, but Andy Pettitte's shoulder tendinitis and Joba Chamberlain's inability to pitch more than four innings since August 16 (when he tossed five innings) certainly makes the third-slot a large question mark.

The only other rotation that rivals that of the Boston Red Sox is the St. Louis Cardinals' one-two punch of Chris Carpenter (16-4, 2.34 ERA) and Adam Wainwright (18-8, 2.59 ERA). As far as a third-slot goes, they certainly have options with two former Red Sox right-handers in Joel Pineiro and John Smoltz.

As much as I'd like to get in depth with other NL postseason contenders such as the Phillies and Dodgers, those teams wouldn't become relevant to you or me unless the Red Sox were to make it to the World Series. While that notion isn't unrealistic, let's just take it one step at a time.

After all, Boston hasn't even clinched a postseason berth...yet. All I can say at this point is, I like our chances.

Magic number to clinch a playoff spot: 7

-Jared Carrabis

To order my debut book, One Fan's Story: If This Hat Could Talk, click HERE!





Published on September 20, 2009

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