Three Months Down, Three To Go by Mike Ghika
Statistically, team performance is solid at midway point


As the 2009 season inches closer to the 81st game of the year – the season’s true halfway point – it is fair to assess the Red Sox as we fast approach the Fourth of July and the Midsummer Classic. This past weekend marked the 76th game of the year and the end of interleague play, so we will begin there.

Offensively, the slugging days of Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz in the middle of the lineup are over, but there is still no shame in what this offense has done to date this year. In fact, the Sox are fourth in the AL in runs, third in runs per game, third in on-base percentage, fourth in slugging, and third in OPS. The Rays and Yankees are ahead of the Sox statistically in all five of those categories, but the hometown club still holds a lead in the standings regardless.

Nonetheless, the numbers are somewhat skewed given the struggles of Ortiz throughout the first few months of the season. Ortiz, of course, is seeing things a bit clearer at the plate, hitting .313 (.394 OBP, .672 SLG) with 7 home runs and 17 RBIs in the month of June. Not enough can be said about fellow boppers Kevin Youkilis (.313-12-42, .443 OBP) and Jason Bay (.277-19-69, .389 OBP) for they have certainly carried the Sox to this point. Amazingly, Youkilis even had an early 15-day DL stint.

Jacoby Ellsbury spent most of his time this season as the leadoff man before being dropped down to the seventh and eighth spots. We of course love his speed and how he disrupts the game with that speed once he does get on base, but the rate at which he got on-base was the reason for the lineup shuffle. Prior to the move on May 31, Ellsbury had walked only 10 times on the year with a .332 OBP. In his 22 games since, Ellsbury has already walked 10 times and gotten on base at a .379 clip.

And with high on-base guys like JD Drew and Dustin Pedroia at the top of the order, it would be fitting for Ellsbury to stay toward the bottom for the remainder of the year. As for Drew, his OBP has not dipped below .360 since May 3. Meanwhile, the reigning MVP Pedroia has had a stellar season to date, but not one that matches up with his 2008 numbers. His average fell to .288 hitting out of the leadoff spot – the lowest its been since April 30 – sparking Terry Francona to slide Drew into the leadoff spot and Pedroia back in the No. 2 hole for the time being. Pedroia’s OBP is still a strong .367 (he is .369 for his career) but his power numbers (2 HR, 30 RBI) are not on pace to match his 17 home runs and 83 RBIs from last year.

The Sox have also gotten offense in spots where they didn’t necessarily expect it to come from. Nick Green has solidified himself as the starting shortstop over Julio Lugo – at least until Jed Lowrie returns – hitting .276 on the year (although he had been up at .293 just a week ago). However, Green has a .332 OBP after just nine walks on the year, so expect to see Lowrie once again take over when healthy.

In addition, Mike Lowell has recovered nicely from hip surgery, hitting .282 with 10 homers and 41 RBIs, although he recently has had trouble with the hip and a trip to the DL may be forthcoming. Jason Varitek, the target of a great deal of scrutiny in 2008 after a down offensive year, is hitting just .235 but is third on the team in home runs (11) and slugging (.485).

The starting pitching wasn’t quite up to par for the Sox early on, although the starters have gotten things together in the last month or so. The staff has been proudly anchored by its bullpen, which has been the best in all of baseball with a miniscule 2.92 ERA.

The starting staff on the other hand has a mediocre 4.65 ERA, good for 11th in the American League. But go figure, the starters still lead the league in wins (34) and strikeouts (372) and have served up just 47 long balls, good for second least in the AL. Not bad for a staff that has essentially gotten nothing out of Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Josh Beckett is 9-3 with a 3.48 ERA, but his numbers do not indicate how good he has been after a rough April. He has been near dominant in May and June, going 7-1 with a 1.94 ERA in his last 10 starts. Likewise, Jon Lester’s performance of late has been astounding, going 4-1 with a 1.80 ERA over his last six starts. Tim Wakefield has been the most consistent starter all year long, as the knuckleballer’s 10-3 record and 4.18 ERA have put his name into the All-Star selection conversation.

The Sox have also gotten a huge lift thus far from Brad Penny, who is 6-3 and has been extremely effective while consistently throwing 95-98 mph following his shoulder troubles last year. He has gone 4-3 with a 3.74 ERA since May.

While Matsuzaka might indeed remain MIA until September, the highly anticipated debut for John Smoltz finally came last week against the Natinals, although he got roughed up for five earned on seven hits over 5.0 IP in his return. Nonetheless, the only logical reasoning is that Smoltz will return to a portion of his old self, while Tito and John Farrell hope to get more of the same from Beckett, Lester, Wakefield, and Penny moving forward.

Offensively, we can hopefully expect an increase in run production if Ortiz avoids his early season woes. Meanwhile, Pedroia and Drew can be expected to hit a bit more in the second half, although their on-base percentages have made them reliable all year long.

As for the bullpen, it is safe to say that nothing needs to change. Daniel Bard has the stuff to take on a more prominent role, but the mindset he needs to dominate at the major league level is not there just yet. Fortunately, the pen is deep enough that how they use Bard at this point doesn’t really matter. Takashi Saito has been in a number of trade talks, but where is there a glaring need anywhere on the 25-man roster in which to deal him for?

The fact is, the Sox have the best record in the American League, and that is after the entire pitching staff struggled all throughout April and one of the best hitters in baseball over the last six years went dormant for two months. For a club that has reached the ALCS in four of the last six years, a return to October baseball is likely on tap if not for a barrage of injuries or some sort of unforeseen, Mets-like collapse. With performance comes consistency, and the 2009 version of the Red Sox has been exactly that.

-Mike Ghika

Published on June 30, 2009

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