2009 American League Predictions by Mike Ghika
The chemistry of the Sox and Rays will upend the Yanks, while the Tribe gets back on track and the A's surprise the baseball world


AL East

1. Red Sox
You know you have depth when youngsters Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden aren’t even in position to crack the rotation, and when Takashi Saito will be the seventh man out of your bullpen. And no matter how much you may buy into David Ortiz’s skepticism about the condition of the offense – a notion that I’m not worried about at all – this team will get to the 95-win mark largely in part because of its remarkable staff from top to bottom. Terry Francona can only hope for health, and then watch the rest fall into place. And if injuries do become a factor, there is plenty of payroll room (the Sox cut payroll by $13m from last year) to allow Theo to go out and acquire the talent needed.

2. Rays*
It is clear the Rays feel more than comfortable with its rotation, which was the mainstay of the 2008 Cinderella team, after deciding to start playoff phenom David Price at Triple A. He will be a factor come May or June alongside a very talented Matt Garza and a very reliable James Shields, although I’m not sold on Scott Kazmir anymore. In addition, Evan Longoria has a year under his belt, BJ Upton is closer to getting healthy after shoulder surgery, Carl Crawford enters a contract year, and Pat Burrell is the perfect designated hitter for that lineup. This offense has table setters as well as capable sluggers, and they will have no trouble crossing the plate.

3. Yankees
Uncertainities involving the bullpen, the bench, and even the manager raise questions for the new, fresh-look Bombers. The Yanks could be viewed as favorites in the AL East, but Mark Teixiera now doesn’t have A-Rod hitting behind him until late April or May, so it is possible the capable first baseman gets off to a slow start. Derek Jeter, Johnny Damon, and Hideki Matsui are aging quickly. Jorge Posada’s large contract will look like a disaster if he is unable to rebound in 2009. AJ Burnett, Chien-Ming Wang, Joba Chamberlain, and Andy Pettite are all susceptible to injury. And for some reason, no one is talking about how much of a problem the set-up crew to Mariano Rivera is going to be. Should the Steinbrenner family's pockets be able to win them 90+ games? Absolutely. But I still feel that the Sox and Rays have more overall depth.

4. Blue Jays
You can’t blame GM JP Ricciardi. A core of Roy Halladay, BJ Ryan, Vernon Wells, and Alex Rios looked like a huge step towards success, and many thought it would happen quickly. Instead, it has been the Rays who have emerged as the only East team that can compete (and beat) the Sox and Yanks. Even if Wells and the offense get on track, there is no starting depth behind Jesse Litsch and Halladay - an ace that will be an attractive prize to other teams with still a year and a half before free agency. Upcoming slugger Travis Snider, who last year played with the New Hampshire Fisher Cats, should garner Rookie of the Year consideration.

5. Orioles
The O’s have set their outfield up for the future with youngsters Adam Jones, Felix Pie, and future All-Star Nick Markakis penciled in from left to right. However, Jeremy Guthrie is their ace by default, and their 3 through 5 starters are extremely questionable. Catcher Matt Wieters, widely regarded as baseball’s top prospect, will appear in the first two months, but this team is clearly still very far off from contention.

AL Central

1. Indians
After a dismal start in 2008, the team lost Fausto Carmona to injury, traded CC Sabathia to Milwaukee, and released closer Joe Borowski. Nonetheless, Cy Young winner Cliff Lee and the five-tool talent of Grady Sizemore still led the Tribe back to an even 81-81 record to finish the year. Carmona went 4-0 with a 2.45 ERA this spring, even though his strikeout totals were down. Manager Eric Wedge though will need Travis Hafner to rediscover himself at the plate to accompany Sizemore, Victor Martinez, and last September’s Player of the Month Shin-Soo Choo in what has the potential to be a powerful lineup. They have a low-risk, high-reward case with Carl Pavano, and newly-acquired Kerry Wood has a dominant setup crew at the back end of the bullpen.

2. Twins
Pitching and defense is always the key to Minnesota’s success. In the rotation, Scott Baker (15-day DL), Nick Blackburn, and Kevin Slowey aren’t exactly household names, but they are pitchers who will neither strikeout nor walk many hitters – a philosophy the organization has no problem with given its faith in team defense. However, they would like to rely on a healthy Francisco Liriano to be an ace and they need to get their stud catcher Joe Mauer healthy as well. But there is offensive upside outside of Justin Morneau if Joe Crede can bounce back and Delmon Young can live up to potential.

3. Tigers
I’ll give this $139 million team a pass after last year’s nightmare. The offense should rake if healthy (although I don’t understand the team's eating Gary Sheffield’s $14 million whatsoever), but a lot lies in the hands of whether or not Justin Verlander can return to form after a nearly 1.20 ERA increase from 2008 to 2009. If Jeremy Bonderman can return from thoracic outlet syndrome (a disorder that affects the nerves that extend from the arms to the neck) as well, the rotation should stand up to the test of time, rounded out by the youthful Armando Galaragga and newly-acquired Edwin Jackson. However, flamethrower Joel Zumaya is hurt again, and the bullpen will once again flounder. Come June, if injuries are minimal and this club still falters, team chemistry and the job of manager Jim Leyland will be called into question.

4. White Sox
John Danks (3.32 ERA in 195 IP) and Gavin Floyd (17 wins, 3.84 ERA) are coming off great 2008 campaigns, but are they the caliber pitchers to front a rotation? Even if they prove to be plenty consistent, Ozzie Guillen’s lineup is in question. Assuming Carlos Quentin has recovered from his wrist injury, he could account for 40 homers, but Paul Konerko and Jim Thome are outdated, and Jermaine Dye will be a free agent next winter. Look for GM Kenny Williams to address some sort of offensive need in the future.

5. Royals
When you haven’t had a 30 homer guy in almost a decade (Dye hit 33 in 2000), and your premier free agent signing in that time is Gil Meche, it’s likely that you haven’t been all that relevant of late. However, Kansas City is getting closer. Their rotation is solid with the emergences of Zack Greinke (3.47 in 202 IP) and Brian Bannister, in addition to Meche and former No. 1 overall pick Luke Hochevar. John Buck and Mark Teahen (acquired in the Carlos Beltran deal years back) haven’t panned out, but KC will hope youngsters Alex Gordon and Billy Butler will have a coming-out party at the plate in 2009. Don’t be surprised if this club finds a way to slip out of the cellar.

AL West

1. Athletics
Some can see it coming. Billy Beane has worked his magic once again. He retooled the Zito-Mulder-Hudson team, then broke up the Haren-Harden-Blanton mold, and is now ready to reap the benefits of phenomenal prospects once again. The A’s sport a large portion of baseball’s Top 100 prospects, and that includes young pitchers Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill, who will eventually get their shots to wow the baseball world in the coming months. Bring in Matt Holliday, Jason Giambi, Orlando Cabrera, and get Eric Chavez back from injury, and the A’s look to revitalize a lineup in which its four infielders all posted the lowest batting average in the league at their respective position last year.

2. Angels
The Halos’ window for opportunity may be closing, if it hasn’t already. They couldn’t bring back Teixeira, and Vladimir Guerrero could be out the door after this season. Their bullpen still looks strong despite K-Rod’s departure with youngster Jose Arredondo and Scot Shields getting the ball to Brian Fuentes. However, the No. 1 concern at the moment is the rotation. Injuries to John Lackey (who enters a contract year) and Ervin Santana (who finally got it together in 2008) certainly are not heartwarming, and Joe Saunders has a dead arm. And I still don’t understand why a club signs Gary Matthews to play center in 2007, then gives Torii Hunter even more money to play the same position in 2008, and then sign Bobby Abreu and Juan Rivera to complete the outfield rotation for 2009. Talk about a logjam.

3. Rangers
Although up and coming shortstop Elvis Andrus is a talent, it was a mistake to force the face of your organization in Michael Young to move to third to make room. However, the offense, led by Josh Hamilton in center and Chris Young (17 HRs in 295 ABs in 2008) as the everyday first baseman, could approach 950 runs scored. Nonetheless, the Rangers have a logjam at catcher (Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Taylor Teagarden, and Max Ramirez all project as starters in the future) and the club looks foolish for sitting pat with all three instead of trying to acquire pitching help, which of course has been the organization’s Achilles heel for a decade and counting now.

4. Mariners
Many picked them to win the AL West in 2008, but things fell apart at the seams rather quickly. But the organization is looking ahead with new manager Dan Wakamatsu and a more focused approach on sabermetrics. The rotation could complete a 180 if Erik Bedard proves healthy alongside Felix Hernandez. And as talented as Brandon Morrow may be, it was wise to leave him in the bullpen (at least for now), for it is where he is most needed. A firesale looms unless they somehow get off to a miraculous start.

* - Wild Card

Most Valuable Player: Justin Morneau, Twins
Cy Young Award: Jon Lester, Red Sox
Rookie of the Year: Matt Wieters, Orioles
Comeback Player of the Year: Joe Crede, Twins

Published on April 06, 2009

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