2009 National League Predictions by Mike Ghika
The defending champion Phils and Mets will battle into September, while the Cubbies and Manny's Dodgers should breeze into October


NL East

1. Phillies
Cole Hamels didn’t get the nod Opening Day because of elbow inflammation, but look for his amazing postseason numbers (4-0, 1.80) to carry over in 2009. The Phils are deep on the mound behind their ace, with Brett Myers, Joe Blanton, and Jamie Moyer to follow, while 6-6 rookie starter J.A. Haap is another left-hander that can contribute on a large-scale level for the World Champs, although he’ll start April in the bullpen. Boras-client Ryan Madson surprisingly re-upped to stay in Philly rather than test the market next winter, meaning he will remain in front of a revived Brad Lidge (41 for 41 in saves) in the pen. Raul Ibanez is a perfect replacement for Pat Burrell to coincide with former MVPs Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins.

2. Mets*
The pieces are in place. The Metropolitans have the mix of young homegrown talent (David Wright, Jose Reyes) and proven veterans (Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, Gary Sheffield), a strong, ace-oriented rotation, and most recently, a revamped bullpen where you sport a Top-5 closer (when healthy) as your set-up man. The only foreseeable negative scenario is if K-Rod somehow struggles out of the gate and New York fans and tabloids call for JJ Putz to be the ninth inning guy. Otherwise, this team has tripped in the final leg of the race for two years running, and it is finally time to return to October this season.

3. Marlins
Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Jorge Cantu, and Cody Ross combined for 116 homers last year, and the Fish hope that young outfielders Cameron Maybin and Jeremy Hermida will account for quality production offensively in 2009. However, the key to this club may be its young and talented pitching staff. 6-7, 230 lb. 25-year-old Josh Johnson went 7-1 in 14 starts after returning from Tommy John surgery last year, and he posted a 3.10 ERA in 157 IP back in 2006. Former No. 1 pick Andrew Miller (acquired from Detroit for Dontrelle Wills – hats off on that one) and Ricky Nolasco (15-8, 3.52 in 2008) will also start for Florida.

4. Braves
Their rotation has an exciting, new-look feel with the additions of Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami, and Javier Vazquez. They just extended Chipper Jones for three more years, but he is not going to hit .364 again. Meawhile, the bullpen is not deep, and manager Bobby Cox is going to have to be reliant on young production, and it may take a year before the dominoes begin to fall.

5. Nationals
Let’s face it, this club is irrelevant, but they have a shot to become relevant come draft time in June. San Diego State right-hander Steven Strasburg is a "once-in-a-decade talent." The Boras-client will undoubtedly sign a record draft deal, one that could approach $20 to $30 million. The only question is whether or not the Nats can afford him. (If they don't sign him, Seattle holds the No. 2 pick and his hometown Padres have the third selection.) Even with a plethora of young talent, things aren’t looking up in Washington, so selecting and locking up Strasburg is a necessary move for the organization.

NL Central

1. Cubs
Milton Bradley and his .500 spring average (22-for-44) could run into injuries playing the outfield every day. If he does get hurt, the Cubs still have enough offense to get by, and getting the opportunity to beat up on Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Houston all year long will help too. Expect a switch from Kevin Gregg (29 saves for Florida in 2008) to the young, dominant Carlos Marmol as closer at some point. Jake Peavy rumors will once again arise come June and July, if not sooner.

2. Cardinals
Busch Stadium will host the 2009 All-Star Game come mid-July, and the Cards have a chance to be in decent position at that point, especially if ace Chris Carpenter is back healthy at 100 percent. The Exeter, NH native’s return should provide stability to a rotation that also features Adam Wainwright (11-3, 3.20 in 20 starts) and Kyle Lohse (15-7, 3.78). However, the bullpen is in disarray and apparently they plan to use a closer-by-committee approach – and Sox fans know what that can be like. Offensively, Albert Pujols is the healthiest he’s been since the Cards’ title run in 2006. In those three years, he’s averaged 36 HRs and 119 RBIs a season while hitting .338.

3. Brewers
They will try to get by with a dominant lineup (Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, JJ Hardy, and Corey Hart accounted for 115 home runs and 373 RBIs last season) without much pitching depth. 23-year-old Yovani Gallardo posted a 1.88 ERA in 4 starts for the Crew last year, as fellow youngster Manny Parra will try to eat innings along with veterans Jeff Suppan and Dave Bush. Luckily, the Brewers do have payroll room to make a Sabathia-like deal at the deadline, although Peavy, who is already signed long-term, may be too costly for them nowadays.

4. Reds
Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn are out. Jay Bruce and Joey Votto are in. Reds fans are excited about the youth of this club, and if Aaron Harang (who is currently trade bait) and Bronson Arroyo (who can't seem to locate his breaking ball anymore) perform well behind young ace Edinson Volquez (acquired from Texas for Josh Hamilton prior to last season), their starting staff could become a strength. This is an organization that, talent-wise, has a shot to take a large leap forward in 2009.

5. Astros
Like Milwaukee, Houston is dependent on a strong offense to balance out its weak pitching. If healthy, Roy Oswalt is always a Top-10 starter, but there’s not much behind him, unless you’re counting on getting something out of the oft-injured Mike Hampton. They are in a position where they can compete but not enough to be serious contenders, so expect them to try and move Miguel Tejada. They probably would like to deal Carlos Lee as well, but he is far too costly.

6. Pirates
Honestly, when an organization has had a losing record for 16 straight seasons, even I can’t be too optimistic. The Bucs are lucky that they only lost 95 games last season. Nate McLouth, Ryan Doumit, and Paul Maholm are all quality players, and they do sport both Andy and Adam LaRoche, but let's face it this team is the worst in all of baseball.

NL West

1. Dodgers
Can we expect a fast start from Manny Ramirez after his contract talks dragged out into spring training and he missed a week of spring training games with a tight hammy? The loss of Derek Lowe can be neutralized if Chad Billingsley (16-10, 3.14) and Hiroki Kuroda (3.73 ERA in 31 starts) continue to improve, and the Big Blue will hope to get something out of Jason Schmidt, who has essentially been non-existent due to injuries since signing with LA prior to the 2007 season and will begin 2009 on the DL as well. Offensively, the Dodgers will get a full year of production from Ramirez, Casey Blake, and Rafael Furcal, and don’t underrate the addition of Orlando Hudson. In addition, youngsters Andre Ethier (.305-20-77), Matt Kemp (.290-18-76), and James Loney (.289-13-90) are all in line to surpass their 2008 numbers.

2. Diamondbacks
I understand payroll is an issue in Arizona (run by Theo Epstein’s former right hand man, Josh Byrnes), but they are just one big bat away from being serious contenders in the NL. They have young talent all around in Justin Upton, Chris Young, Stephen Drew, Conor Jackson, and Mark Reynolds, but they currently lack that intimidating power threat that fellow divisional foe Los Angeles went and got last season. Nonetheless, it doesn’t get much stronger than Brandon Webb and Dan Haren fronting a rotation, and they only got stronger with the addition of Jon Garland. Top prospect Max Scherzer could also be a major factor in 2009 if he can avoid shoulder issues that have bothered him in the past.

3. Giants
Much like Oakland just across the bay, San Francisco may see a strong turnaround in 2009. Their rotation is as deep as any other with reigning Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum, Randy Johnson, Matt Cain, Barry Zito, as well as the extremely talented and upcoming Jonathan Sanchez, whom the Giants refused to trade this off-season. They strengthened the bullpen as well with the addition of lefty Jeremy Affeldt, but at the end of the day, the offense is absolutely atrocious – and the inability to score runs will once again be a glaring weakness.

4. Rockies
The Rox’ No. 1, Jeff Francis, is lost for the season, and rather quickly, a club that is just a year removed from a pennant is on the cusp of breaking it all up. Matt Holliday is already gone, and other key pieces (Garrett Atkins, Brad Hawpe) are frequently brought up in trade talks. Meanwhile, the club’s longest-tenured player, Todd Helton, is past his prime. Catcher Chris Ianetta was solid in 2008 (.390 OBP in 333 ABs) and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki is healthy again. However, the magic from Colorado’s September-October run in 2007 is long, long gone.

5. Padres
Jake Peavy’s name will be frequently inquired upon as soon as late May, and GM Kevin Towers still would like to pass along his ace’s long-term contract in exchange for three or four prospects. Otherwise, their offense will once again falter at spacious PETCO Park. Could two-way player Adrian Gonzalez become available at some point?

* - Wild Card

Most Valuable Player: Albert Pujols, Cardinals
Cy Young Award: Johan Santana, Mets
Rookie of the Year: Kenshin Kawakami, Braves
Comeback Player of the Year: Chris Carpenter, Cardinals

Published on April 06, 2009

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