Debunking The Manny Theory by Jared Carrabis
Will the Red Sox suffer without Manny Ramirez in 2009?


It has been exactly 23 weeks, 161 days to be exact, since the trade that sent Manny Ramirez to the Los Angeles Dodgers sent shock waves throughout Red Sox Nation.

In that 2008 season, the Red Sox came within just three runs of advancing to the World Series for the third time in five seasons. You've heard the fans blame Manny, you've even heard a few players point to the absence of Ramirez as the reason why the Red Sox date with the Phillies was never met. As much as I used to believe the Red Sox were a better team with Manny Ramirez, the fact is that they were not.

In the absence of Ramirez, Manny's friend and fellow Dominican slugger, David Ortiz, expressed his feelings on the effect that Manny's departure had on the club.

“Whenever you can add a slugger to your lineup, it does nothing but help,” said Ortiz. “I know we missed Manny last year. Who’s your cleanup hitter? Whenever your cleanup hitter goes away from your lineup, it hurts you.”

To the naked eye, you'd have to agree that removing a player of Ramirez's caliber from any lineup can only hurt the offensive production. However, that wasn't the case here in Boston. When Ramirez was traded on July 31, 2008, the Boston Red Sox went on to win 18 games in the month of August, the most wins recorded of any month in all of 2008.

Though most assumed that Ortiz's protection in the lineup was shipped to LA, the fact is that all of the hitters that combined to hit fourth for the Red Sox in 2008 finished with the second highest batting average in the entire lineup. With those hitting second in 2008 combining to hit .320 with 18 HR and 95 RBI, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia picked up the slack in the fourth slot. Combined with Ramirez's stats before his departure, the Boston cleanup hitters finished the season batting .303 with 33 HR and 124 RBI.

The cleanup hitters also had the highest OBP throughout the lineup finishing with a mark of .402 to go along with the highest slugging percentage (.542) and the highest OPS (.944). As much as we'd like to point our fingers at Ramirez for not getting to the World Series, the Red Sox offense didn't skip a beat in his absence. In fact, Boston went on to finish third in the Major Leagues in runs scored even without the bat of Manny Ramirez.

Granted this would not have been possible without the contributions made by newcomer, Jason Bay. Though Manny's number in August were astronomical (.415/9 HR/25 RBI), the Red Sox got similar--but not equal to--production out of Jason Bay who hit .315 with 4 HR and drove in 29 runs, four more than Ramirez. Towards the stretch run, Bay also launched five more home runs.

As we turned the calendar to October, the two were following in each other's footsteps. While Manny hammered his way to a .500 average in the NLDS with 2 HR and 3 RBI to sweep the Chicago Cubs, Jason Bay was putting up quite impressive number himself. A .412 average in his October debut went well with his identical 2 HR and 5 RBI.

As the two sluggers moved on to their respective League Championship Series', the two continued to swing hot bats as they both homered. However, neither team that Ramirez or Bay played for advanced. You can compare the numbers all you want, but the fact is that the only thing the Red Sox lost when they traded Manny Ramirez was the intimidation factor in the cleanup spot, and a major headache.

It would be unfair of Red Sox fans to expect Jason Bay to duplicate what Manny Ramirez was for this team, it's just not possible. But what Bay did when he put on a Red Sox uniform for the first time was above and beyond what we all could have asked for as fans. Bay provided the Red Sox organization with consistency both in the lineup and on the field. We were given a player that puts the team before that of anything else and we were given a player that fights for the guy sitting next to him, not for the faces of the past presidents that would appear on the dollars coming from his next paycheck.

Would it help to have Manny Ramirez in this Red Sox lineup? Only a fool would say no to that question. Will the Red Sox suffer in 2009 without the likes of a Manny Ramirez in their lineup? Absolutely not. As long as this team stays motivated, which they are, then the natural talent of each and every player on that 25 man roster will propel this Red Sox team back to where they belong, October.

-Jared Carrabis

Published on February 20, 2009

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