SoxSpace News

Matchups may favor Red Sox in ALCS by Mike Ghika
Recent history makes it important for Rays to retain home-field advantage

This year’s American League Championship Series supplies a watertight match-up between two AL East powerhouses. One has defied all odds. Another has solidified itself as the premier organization in all of baseball. They have battled, they have fought (literally), and they each find themselves in the position they have worked for all season along: an opportunity to advance to the World Series. In light of all this, SoxSpaceNews goes over the match-ups for you.

STARTING ROTATION: At the moment, Tampa Bay does not have the staff ace that can match up with Jon Lester. Lester has clearly eclipsed Kazmir from a production standpoint and then some, and at this point Lester can probably be considered the best southpaw in the American League. Nonetheless, Daisuke Matsuzaka’s control is always an issue, and unfortunately, Josh Beckett’s health is as well. Tampa’s starters, although not dominant, are well-rested and exceptionally consistent, perhaps indicating that some of these games will be decided from the seventh inning on. But if the series does extend to seven games like many expect it to, the Rays may be out of luck against Lester, even at the Trop.
EDGE: Red Sox.

BULLPEN: For the Rays, Grant Balfour is the real-deal at the back end, but he has yet to be truly tested in postseason crunch-time. Meanwhile, Dan Wheeler and lefties Trever Miller and J.P. Howell have been models of consistency, but they have yet to do it on the big stage. For the Sox, the bullpen has solidified itself in the second half, as Manny Delcarmen, Jonathan Papelbon Hideki Okajima, Justin Masterson, and Javier Lopez have a combined 2.26 ERA since the All-Star break. As long as the rotation gives them innings, the Sox bullpen has the experience and ability to cut short the Rays’ offense late in games.
EDGE: Red Sox.

CATCHER: Dioneer Navarro went 6-for-15 (.400) in the ALDS, and is undoubtedly an essential part of the Rays team. Meanwhile, Jason Varitek, although he came up big at the plate in Game 4 at Fenway, will still get pinch-hit for late in games by manager Terry Francona. Varitek also won’t be catching Game 4 with Tim Wakefield on the hill. Navarro, the All-Star, gets the nod.
EDGE: Rays.

FIRST BASE: Had Kevin Youkilis been penciled in at first, this would be a no-brainer, but he will be playing third in Mike Lowell’s absence. With that said, Carlos Pena (5 for 10 in the ALDS) has the edge over the Mark Kotsay/Sean Casey platoon for Boston. Nonetheless, both hitters are veterans with something to prove in the postseason.
EDGE: Rays.

SECOND BASE: Don’t get me wrong, Akinora Iwamura is a dangerous hitter for this young Tampa Bay team. He is a gap-to-gap guy who hit .389 against Chicago with a double, triple, and home run. But MVP candidate Dustin Pedroia may be ready to break out at the plate after his RBI double in Game 4. Not sure that anyone else on the Sox’ roster has more to prove than their pint-sized second baseman does.
EDGE: Red Sox.

THIRD BASE: Another MVP candidate goes for Boston while the possible Rookie of the Year mans the hot corner for Tampa. However, Youkilis’s 4-for-18 series was one he’d like to leave behind while Longoria only had one hit in the final three games of the Chicago series after his monster Game 1. Both will be key elements if their teams are going to advance to the Fall Classic.
EDGE: Even.

SHORTSTOP: Jed Lowrie’s confidence could not be higher after his walk-off series hit off Scot Shields. Meanwhile, with injuries to both Longoria and Carl Crawford towards the end of the year for the Rays, Jason Bartlett became their most consistent player from April to September.
EDGE: Even.

LEFT FIELD: Carl Crawford is the longest-tenured Ray, but Jason Bay’s performance in the ALDS will go down in the Sox’ history books. The newcomer hit .412 against the Angels with 2 HR and 5 RBI.
EDGE: Red Sox.

CENTER FIELD: Borderline-superstar B.J. Upton hit a respectable .278 in the ALDS, and also clubbed 3 homers. Meanwhile, Jacoby Ellsbury’s October dominance continues, as Coco Crisp has been relegated to the bench full-time while the youngster hit .333 with 3 stolen bases in the ALDS after a .438 performance in last year’s World Series. And after his 18-game hitting streak tear to finish off September, I don’t see any reason why his bat should suddenly go quiet.
EDGE: Red Sox.

RIGHT FIELD: Unfortunately for Tampa, right-fielder Gabe Gross shouldn’t be more than a role player (although he has been timely at the plate against Red Sox pitching). J.D. Drew showed his June 2008 promise with a game-winning homer in Game 2 away from Fenway, and he’s also had time to rest between series.
EDGE: Red Sox.

DESIGNATED HITTER: For Tampa, Cliff Floyd hit in the spot in Games 1 and 4, while Rocco Baldelli was the DH in Game 2 and Willy Aybar in Game 3. Red Sox Nation can probably put money on David Ortiz succeeding in this match-up, although it would be nice if Big Papi improved on his 4-for-17 ALDS performance. If he were to return to his 2004 postseason numbers, the Sox wouldn’t have much trouble advancing in this series.
EDGE: Red Sox.

BENCH: The Sox have the better depth at catcher, but the absence of Lowell shortens the bench immediately with the addition of Kotsay to the starting nine. Crisp will also start sparingly when Drew's back becomes too sore, potentially taking away another bench piece. For the Rays, Rocco Baldelli will start a few games at DH (surely 3 and 7 vs. the left-handed Lester), and Ben Zobrist has become more valuable to the Rays than Alex Cora is to the Sox.
EDGE: Rays.

MANAGER: Terry Francona has led his club to postseason appearances in 4 of his 5 seasons at the helm of the Sox, and has 2 World Series titles to show for it. Nonetheless, the Rays would not have gotten to the ALCS without the leadership of Joe Maddon. In his third season as manager in Tampa, he has led his club to an AL East crown, and a shot at the World Series. Simply put, the Rays would not be in this position without Maddon at the forefront.
EDGE: Rays.

In the end, the Sox still have to overcome the Rays’ home-field advantage, and with Beckett’s health at question in Game 2, Game 1 is almost a must-win at the Trop with Matsuzaka trying to get his control in order. And though individual match-ups may favor the hometown team, the Rays did take the season series 10-8, while the Sox only managed one win away from Fenway Park, making it imperative for the Rays to take care of business at the Trop, especially with Lester going in Game 3 at Fenway. Regardless, all of baseball is in for a treat as this series gets underway to determine the American League pennant.